Almost all Triad warning frameworks are based on assessing the National Demand Forecast (NDF) produced by the system operator.
VuePoint Solutions’ unique approach of using our own proprietary in-house demand forecasting model to simulate multiple whole winter weather dependent outcomes has proved robust, showing no reduction in demand forecasting accuracy since the previous winter, unlike the NDF whose forecast error increased by almost 20%.
With ever-increasing embedded and renewable generation, the deterioration in INDO forecasts and the magnitude of demand revisions are expected to increase over the coming winter, presenting a growing challenge for NDF based services.
VuePoint highlighted the deterioration in NDF back in April 2018, OFGEM announced an investigation in May 2018
VuePoint also improved its Triad warning performance, calling all three Triads with only 20 alerts.
Reliable Triad warnings to ensure maximum TNUoS charge avoidance
Minimum number of warnings to avoid unnecessary and wasteful abatement actions
Robust statistical simulation model – no tea leaf reading
Easy to use with automated reports 4 times a day, 7 days a week